NQ Trade Plan 5/11

Bulls Refuse to Back Down but Volatility Remains Elevated with Uncertainty in Iran.

Nasdaq Futures (NQ/MNQ)Trading Plan – May 11

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Market Overview

Friday’s session saw Nasdaq futures continue their recent pattern of one-sided breakout trend days, as bulls pushed price to yet another new all-time high, with NQ rallying more than 600 points to close near 29,340.

Momentum remains firmly bullish, with buyers continuing to aggressively step in on pullbacks and chase breakout moves higher. The market has now transitioned into a high-momentum expansion phase, driven primarily by continued strength in technology and AI-related sectors.

Pre-market, price is consolidating near Friday’s highs, as markets react to reports that President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal aimed at ending the conflict. While the market has not aggressively sold off on the news, geopolitical tensions remain an important variable and could quickly increase volatility if conditions deteriorate further.

There is no clear pre-market setup, with the London session trading within the Asia range, signaling consolidation after Friday’s aggressive expansion.

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Macro & Market Context

Momentum Conditions Remain Extremely Strong

The dominant trend continues to be:

• Aggressive breakout buying

• Shallow pullbacks

• Strong continuation after consolidation

Friday’s 600-point rally reinforces that buyers remain firmly in control as momentum continues to accelerate.

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Geopolitical Risk Still Lurking Beneath the Surface

Despite the rally, geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated:

• Rejection of Iran’s proposal introduces renewed uncertainty

• Markets remain highly sensitive to headlines

• Any escalation could trigger sharp volatility and profit-taking

So far, markets appear willing to look through geopolitical risk, but that dynamic can shift quickly.

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Consolidation at Highs Typically Precedes Expansion

Current price action reflects:

• Balance after a strong breakout

• Market accepting higher prices

• Potential setup for another expansion move

Holding near highs after a major rally is generally considered a bullish sign, as sellers have failed to force meaningful retracement.

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29265 as the Key Pivot

The 29,265 level is the key intraday control point:

• Holding above → supports continuation toward higher highs

• Losing this level → signals short-term exhaustion and pullback potential

This level will determine directional bias for today’s session.

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Psychological Resistance Near 29,500

The market is approaching another key psychological zone:

• 29,500 represents a major momentum target

• Break and hold above this area could trigger another round of aggressive buying

• Failure near these levels may invite profit-taking volatility

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Trade Scenarios

Bullish Scenario (Long Bias)

• As long as price holds above 29,265, I would be interested in longs targeting:

  • 29,404

  • 29,425

  • 29,450

• A sustained move above 29,450 would confirm continued breakout momentum and increase the probability of further upside expansion.

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Bearish Scenario (Short Bias)

• A lower high below 29,265 would invalidate the bullish setup.

• In this case, I would be interested in shorts targeting:

  • 29,235

  • 29,190

  • 29,075

• A breakdown below 29,190 would signal weakening momentum and increase the probability of a deeper pullback.

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Key Levels & Targets

Resistance (Upside Levels)
29,355 → 29,404 → 29,425 → 29,450

Support (Downside Levels)
29,265 → 29,235 → 29,190 → 29,075

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Summary

NQ remains in a strong momentum-driven uptrend, consolidating near all-time highs after another aggressive breakout session.

Above 29,265 → Long bias toward 29,425–29,450
Below 29,265 → Short bias toward 29,190–29,075

With momentum elevated and geopolitical uncertainty still in the background, remain focused on confirmation and disciplined risk management, as markets continue to trade in a headline-sensitive, high-volatility environment.

Futures trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all traders. This plan is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.