NQ Trade Plan 8/3
The Market Is Higher, but Have the Bears Really Lost Control?
Nasdaq Futures (NQ/MNQ)Trading Plan – August 3
Market Overview
Friday’s session saw the Nasdaq struggle to build on Thursday’s powerful earnings-driven rebound. Buyers briefly pushed price above 28,611, but momentum quickly faded as profit-taking emerged, leaving NQ to finish the week trading near 28,280.
The inability to extend the rally suggests that, despite renewed optimism following last week’s Big Tech earnings, institutional investors remain cautious. Buyers continue to defend key support levels, but sellers have consistently used rallies as opportunities to reduce exposure.
Pre-market, NQ is trading more than 100 points higher as markets react to renewed diplomatic efforts aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, improving sentiment across global risk assets.
Attention now shifts to a busy week of economic data. While the June Employment Report remains the week’s marquee release on Friday, today’s focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 AM ET, followed by Palantir’s earnings report after the closing bell.
We currently have a bearish continuation setup, supported by the London session trading below the Asia session range, indicating that sellers continue to hold a slight technical advantage despite the stronger overnight open.
Macro & Market Context
Markets Monitor Geopolitical Developments
Renewed diplomatic discussions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have improved overnight market sentiment.
Investors continue to monitor developments because stability in the region could:
Reduce energy market volatility.
Ease inflation concerns.
Improve global risk appetite.
Support broader equity markets.
However, geopolitical headlines remain highly fluid, and markets can quickly reverse if negotiations lose momentum.
ISM Manufacturing PMI Offers Another Economic Snapshot
Today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI will provide traders with an updated view of U.S. manufacturing activity.
Markets will be watching for clues about:
Business activity.
New orders.
Employment trends.
Inflation pressures.
Overall economic momentum.
Manufacturing data often influences expectations for economic growth and Federal Reserve policy, particularly when results diverge significantly from forecasts.
Palantir Earnings Keep the AI Theme in Focus
After the closing bell, investors will turn their attention to Palantir, one of the market’s most closely watched artificial intelligence software companies.
Key areas of focus include:
AI platform adoption.
Government and commercial contract growth.
Revenue guidance.
Profitability trends.
Management commentary on enterprise AI demand.
Strong results could provide another boost to AI-related stocks, while disappointing guidance may pressure sentiment across the broader technology sector.
Friday’s Jobs Report Remains the Week’s Biggest Catalyst
Although today’s calendar includes important economic data, investors are already looking ahead to Friday’s employment report.
The labor market remains one of the Federal Reserve’s primary areas of focus, making this week’s jobs data particularly important for:
Interest rate expectations.
Treasury yields.
Technology stock valuations.
Overall market direction.
Until then, traders should expect positioning to remain cautious ahead of another high-impact macro release.
28,660 Becomes the Key Pivot
The 28,660 level is the most important intraday control point for today’s session.
Holding below 28,660 supports the bearish continuation setup.
Failed rallies into this level reinforce seller control.
Reclaiming 28,660 weakens the bearish outlook.
Sustained acceptance above this level would shift momentum back toward buyers.
This pivot should determine whether overnight strength develops into a broader recovery or simply provides another opportunity for sellers to re-enter the market.
Trade Scenarios
Bearish Scenario (Short Bias)
The bearish continuation setup remains valid below 28,660.
As long as price holds below this level, I would be interested in shorts targeting:
28,400
28,245
28,165
A sustained move below 28,245 would reinforce seller control and increase the probability of another test of last week’s lows.
Bullish Scenario (Long Bias)
A higher low followed by sustained acceptance above 28,660 would invalidate the bearish continuation setup.
In this case, I would be interested in longs targeting:
28,700
28,760
28,885
A sustained move above 28,760 would suggest buyers are regaining momentum and could open the door for another test of higher resistance.
Key Levels & Targets
Resistance (Upside Levels)
28,660 → 28,700 → 28,760 → 28,885
Support (Downside Levels)
28,470 → 28,400 → 28,245 → 28,165
Conclusion
NQ begins the week with modest overnight gains as easing geopolitical tensions improve sentiment, but sellers continue to maintain the near-term technical advantage. With ISM Manufacturing PMI, Palantir earnings, and Friday’s closely watched employment report all on the calendar, expect volatility to remain elevated throughout the week.
Below 28,660 → Short bias toward 28,245–28,165
Above 28,660 → Long bias toward 28,760–28,885
While the overnight rebound is encouraging, the broader technical picture remains mixed following Friday’s failed breakout attempt. As long as price remains below the 28,660 pivot, rallies may continue to attract selling pressure.
A sustained move above that level would provide the first indication that buyers are regaining control heading into another catalyst-filled week.
Futures trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all traders. This plan is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.